Survivng Barstool Episodes 2/3 Recap/Midseason Predictions

Alright, we’re now three episodes into Surviving Barstool and things are heating up. Over the last two episodes we saw a lot of action that I am going to unpack here. I was right and wrong about a lot of things that I predicted in my episode one blog so I’m going to talk about all of that as well, but we’re going to start with a recap of episode two.

After White Sox Dave bit the dust in episode one we were down to seven competitors in episode two. We opened the episode on what might have been the most unsettling thing I have ever witnessed: Tommy, looking like his body was absolutely deteriorating. Tommy literally looked like the kid from The Middle had been in a morgue for three days as he attempted to tie his shoes like some sort of young chimpanzee who doesn’t have fully developed motor skills yet. Listen, I love Tommy Smokes, but if how he’s been holding up living in the office for three days is any indication of how he’d survive in the wild, he’s going to need to do a Bear Grylls style survival course and maybe hop on TB12 before heading to the Mamanuca Islands for the real show. That being said, although he looked like he was dying of some sort of rare condition, Tommy was still in control of this game in episode two and it showed. The other contestants didn't even start looking for the idol until day three, two full days after Tommy had pocketed it on night one. 

As the episode continued we got an essential min Lowering The Bar episode for the immunity challenge with Vibbs. In my last blog I said it seemed like Trysta was going to have to win immunity again to keep her game rolling, but the second we saw Vibbs’ satanic 30 going on 18 smile pop up you would’ve had to have been an idiot to think anyone other than Zah or Donnie was going to be taking immunity for the night, and sure enough after a valiant battle, it was Zah who got the New Amsterdam immunity necklace.

After the challenge, Trysta did her best to save herself by pitching Donnie as the biggest threat in the game, and it seemed like she had a little bit of traction with the girls on the plan, but her plan didn’t stick and even though the production team did a great job not making it obvious, once we saw that infamous Tommy Smokes wink we knew what was coming… Speaking of the wink, for how much I shat on Tommy in the first paragraph about looking utterly repulsive this episode, that wink saved it. It was so goddamn cool. Real MJ shrug type moment from the guy who really dominated the first few episodes from start to finish. 

At tribal, the gang voted off Trysta in a predictable move, but that wasn’t the interesting part of the event, what was interesting came after. After KFC read the votes and Trysta was eliminated it seemed like the episode was over and cameras were about to wrap; then from the top rope Kelly and Brianna blurted out who they voted for and that they had an alliance with Trysta!! What were they thinking??? The first rule of tribal council is you don’t speak unless spoken to, you don’t need to be a survivor fan to know that! Absolutely moronic move from the girls to give away your hand like that, especially after you made a big move blindsiding someone who was working with you! Overall, pretty predictable episode up until that last jaw dropping exchange but now with the six people remaining being the six who were working together, it was clear episode three was going to be a mood changer. 

Moving on to episode three, this episode is where everyone really started playing the game. Kelly won immunity and the group all presumed somebody (Tommy) had the idol. When Tommy went to film a podcast, Donnie went through his bag and found the idol (presuming it was Short Porch it serves Tommy right to suffer for being a Yankees fan). I thought for sure they had to vote out Tommy at this point and force his hand with the idol, but just as I predicted in my episode one blog, the team Portnoy graphic with Zah being the favorite got people paranoid about going to the end with him and the group started to panic. One great play before tribal was Nick just talking to Tommy like he knew he had the idol. It came off so innocent and genuine coming from Nick, and it got Tommy to admit he had the idol for the first time. The first time it felt like somebody else was in the driver's seat in the social game.

But of course, tribal came along and everything changed. Tommy claimed he was using his idol after the votes no matter what, which Donnie reminded everyone wasn’t him using it yet. Everyone then proceeded to vote, with Donnie and Tommy the only ones seeming uneasy about the vote. Then when KFC asked if anyone was going to play an idol Tommy simply got up and asked who everyone voted for, AND THEY TOLD HIM! Donnie even mentioned he hadn’t played the idol yet and they still spilled the beans!! For the second straight episode, Keegs and Chickenfry pulled a Plaxico Burress and shot themselves in the foot at tribal council worsening their position in the game. A Kobe Esque pump fake from Tommy Smokes here (I would have never thought that I would have compared Tommy to both MJ and Kobe, but here we are). Zah upset by the move left emotionally as tensions started to explode at council before the episode wrapped in what is setting up what should be a dramatic sequence down the stretch to end this thing.

I felt bad for Zah, he didn’t deserve to go out that way. He’s a Barstool fan favorite, the king of the radio room, and just an overall great dude (his radio intro is a top 3 barstool radio moment ever). But when you keep reassuring people you don’t care about being there or about the money, people are going to vote you out thinking it's the safest move. I get where he was coming from trying to offset the whole “favorite” narrative with his own of not caring, but traditionally not caring is going to hurt you way more. Not to rub dirt in the wound, but considering the way the premiere league table looks right now, Zah should get used to finishing outside the top five.

Now, looking back on episodes 2-3 after making predictions post episode 1, I got a lot of things right. Got some wrong too, but definitely got some right. Here’s how I did:

What I got right:

• Trysta would be second out
• Trysta would get blamed for the sole vote against Kelly (Keegs said this at council in episode 2)
• The graphic illustrating Zah as the favorite would screw him
• Nick might win this thing as a bit
• Tommy will be there down the stretch.

What I got wrong:

• Guys would use their numbers against the girls
• Trysta would be a competition beast
• Donnie and Zah would team up
• Zah was going to be a huge factor this season

Pretty decent track record.

Looking forward to the second half of the season, I have no clue where we are headed. Everyone seems to be starting to really play the game now, and I think all five players are going to have a shot, but if I had to guess what is going to happen next episode here’s my guess: I think next round the boys have to use their numbers. They’d be stupid not to at this point considering it’s a free final three trip if they stay strong. On top of that the girls have gotten in their own way too many times and quite frankly Nick and Donnie are going to need Tommy for the vote, and Tommy is going to need some sort of alliance after isolating himself so badly last round. However, if Tommy thinks Nick and Donny are the biggest threats, maybe building some sort of trust back with the girls to take one of them out could be an option. I think Donnie or Keegs could be next out as Donnie is starting to have a high game IQ and Keegs as I stated before is a ticking time bomb and was the most vocal against Tommy at the ceremony, which doesn’t help get his vote this round. 

As for the other three, I think Brianna and Nick are in the best positions right now. Both are playing a good social game while also staying off everyone's radars thus far. It would not surprise me at all to see them both in the final three. Tommy on the other hand has clearly played the best game thus far, but that could hurt him the second he isn’t safe. At this point, I’m sure nobody will want to bring him to the final two unless he can convince them he won’t get any jury votes, which would be another impressive notch in his belt. So being a challenge beast down the stretch might be Tommy’s best chance at making his survivor dreams come true. Whatever happens though, I am sure we are in for a treat the next few nights.