Surviving Barstool Episode 4 Recap / Finale Predictions: Making The Case For And Against The Final Four

Oh boy oh boy, another great episode of Surviving Barstool tonight and we are now officially four episodes deep with one to go after getting the penultimate episode of the season last night. This episode wasn’t the most dramatic episode of the season but it had some big game moves that are going to play a part come finale night when a winner is chosen.

We opened on an awkward post council Tommy and Donnie cold open where Donnie takes about three episodes worth of time to say that Tommy should trust him now after not voting for him. I mean this is best scenario for Tommy, he just fucked everyone over and Donnie is joking around with him after it? Can’t ask for much more than that. Tommy’s whole strategy this episode seemed to be just turning down the heat around himself. We see it in what looked like a thrown challenge, how he campaigned for votes more conservatively, and ultimately he doesn’t get his way this episode because of that sacrifice to turn the heat down. It might not be sexy but it could have been in his interest to be on the losing side of this move to have a slightly smaller target in the final four. You may ask does turning a Frank sized target to a Duggs sized target really mean that much with numbers being so crucial this late in the game? And to be honest I’m not sure.

In the beginning of the episode, the guys are on the same page that Keegs is the biggest target on the board and are finally having the come to god moment that they can use their numbers to theoretically have a free trip to the final three. Keegs knows she needs the immunity or she’s gone and it’s agreed that if Keegs can get the immunity then the three take Brianna out and go for Kelly next round. After the initial conversation, it felt like the episode should have been pretty open and shut. However, to quote Murphy’s Law “whatever can go wrong will go wrong.” 

In homage to a true Survivor classic, the competition was the loved ones competition, a reoccurring challenge that happens near the end of a season in the show. I really can’t stress this enough, this attention to detail and competition show fan service is being done so well I am convinced you could put this on network TV and Logan gets an Emmy. It’s that good and so well thought out I find myself giddy when the competitors are shedding fake tears over their loved ones. And speaking of Emmys, this competition is hosted by the man the myth the legend, Jeff D. Lowe, and the D stands for does not disappoint. I love everything Jeff does, he’s a true professional, a national treasure and this appearance was no exception. 

The competition felt like a blowout the whole way. Technically it was only decided by two rings, but Ria (Keegs’ loved one) was the only one hitting accurately every throw. Frank was all over the place like a coaches son who has no business pitching and should be playing right field, Trent didn’t even get a chance to throw because Tommy was either throwing the competition or has just innumerable amounts of basic knowledge gaps, and Mintzy and Glenny stunk too but Glenny was a hero today on his flight so it’s okay. Keegs/Ria won decisively and booked their trip with Tommy to be our first two members of the final four.

The most important part of this episode was the post-competition social game. For the first time, it felt like everyone was really playing the game. People were wheeling and dealing in all combinations possible. We had the three guys, the two girls, the girls plus Tommy, the girls plus Nick, and Donnie and Brianna just to name a few pairings. At first, it felt like the three guys were just going to mow down Brianna and move on to the final four easily, but then things hit the fan. Donnie accidentally sent a text meant for Brianna talking about Tommy having two idols and getting Nick out to a group chat of Tommy, Nick, and Jetskii, which is just a preposterously stupid mistake. Just an all time bonehead move from the Wonton Don, it felt like I was watching someone send the screenshots of a text to the person they screenshotted. After that, the trust was broken between Nick and Donnie and the girls were now in the driver's seat to take out whichever one of the two they pleased. Tommy tried his best to keep the gang together and make the original play to split the girls up happen, but it was too little too late and Tommy lost his first battle in a big move from Nick and the girls.

The girls won this episode plain and simple. Keegs saved herself in physical competition, and Brianna worked her way to safety through her social game, pitting Donnie and Nick against each other and being able to side with whoever she and Keegs felt was the best for them. There was no way the only pure alliance in the game should have been in the final four together, but they made it happen. Pure class. You could make the argument that Nick also made the best move for his game, taking out a huge threat to win the game in Donnie if he believes he can beat Brianna (he actively chose to vote to keep her so he obviously wants to be standing next to her in the final three) and one of Keegs/Tommy in the finals.

Just like last blog what I got right:

• Donnie or Keegs would be next out, Keegs was the target before immunity, Donnie ended up getting out
• Brianna and Nick would be in a great position to make final 4 and possibly final 3
• Someone could break away from the guys to join the girls to get a guy out

What I got wrong

• Thought Tommy would be the one breaking away to make the blindside, not Nick
• Said boys would finally use their numbers to push to the final three (would’ve been the smart move and so easy I still think)
• Nick and Donnie working together (before the infamous text this looked good!!)

Again, not bad had a decent idea of what was going to happen, had the people's roles involved a little messed up.

Now for the real fun, making the case for AND against each of the final four to win the $10,000 prize and be the inaugural Surviving Barstool champion. All four of these guys/girls/Tommy can seriously win it and I will present why each of them will and won’t win the game.

Brianna Chickenfry

The case for: The case for Brianna Chickenfry lies in her social game. She should not be here and I mean that in the best way possible. What I mean by that is she should have been voted out in final five, but she wasn’t and that wasn’t luck. Brianna flipped the house on itself and changed what should have been a 3-2 vote against her, into a 3-2 vote against Donnie, with Nick as arguably the second most likely to be voted off at that council. That’s a huge move! From 99% out the door to one vote against her and being the third most likely to leave is a resume move you need to win the game. It helps even more that it got out a huge threat in Donnie and it being at Tommy’s expense after he called his shot at council. Furthermore she kept her core alliance with Kelly safe the whole way until the end, played true to her word, and did it all without being safe at ANY of the votes this season and being on the winning side of the vote at every council. 

The case against: Brianna was never considered the most dangerous player in the game at any particular time throughout this season, and the people who were are all still in. It’s kind of like the case against a Philip Rivers type player making the Hall of Fame, she had her moments but it never felt like she dominated the game. Even when she was a top target it was because Keegs had immunity. She also seems to be the player both Kelly and Nick want to bring to final three so take that how you will.

Kelly Keegs

The case for: Keegs has been a competition beast this week. She’s been essentially living in the New Amsterdam lounge, winning two immunity challenges in crucial times, and spending a third night using Trysta like a sugar daddy as well. She’s the only competitor left in the game who’s won a challenge and she’s got two of them. A third challenge win tomorrow would look JUICY to the jurors if she’s sitting there in the final three. On top of that, Keegs was a part of the Donnie blindside with Brianna pulling apart the guys' alliance and was a vocal leader around “camp” throughout the week leading the charge in many of the votes. Like Brianna, she was on the right side of every vote.

The case against: She already has one vote that isn’t going to her in Trysta so she only has 4 votes accessible to her, a tall task to take three of those four. She shot herself in the foot twice at tribal council and fell for Tommy’s fake idol pump hook line and sinker. Three of the final four have been on the right side of every vote so it doesn’t really help her against anyone except Tommy, and one could argue that in the tribal council where Zah got out nobody was on the right side of the vote except Tommy as it would’ve been in everyone's best interest to force an idol play that night. Socially her biggest move was last round but even then she was playing with no risk and Brianna had actual skin on the line for it.

Nick:

The case for: I think Nick has one of the sneakiest best social games thus far. He has made zero enemies the entire season (even Donnie and he were laughing about blindsiding each other) which can not be understated when the jury comes knocking, he was the first person to break Tommy when he got him to admit to the idol by just playing as if he knew he had it, he was ultimately the one who pulled the trigger on blindsiding Donnie to further his game rather than just play into somebody else’s cards and take out Brianna, and he has played it just innocently enough where he might be able to not be anyone's biggest target which would give him a trip to the final three. Another crazy tidbit, Nick only has one singular vote cast against him this season even though he has NEVER been safe at a tribal council, and that only vote was Donnie who had to try to make a move to stay alive. Simply put Nick has made big moves while also being the charming fun guy who everyone likes, that is a pretty lethal combo.

The case against: The case against Nick will be if Brianna / Kelly can pitch it to the jury like they were controlling Nick as their pawn in the Donnie blindside, this changes the move from Nick having blindsided a huge target to Nick betrayed someone who wanted to work with him and was used by the girls and brought along to the final three. And although he was able to get valuable information out of Tommy which was a great move, Tommy’s counter move of not playing the idol could overshadow this if Tommy also makes it to final three. Nick also could suffer from the Zah problem of giving off the “not caring” with the jury (which I don’t think will happen at this point but theoretically could), and there were rumblings between the girls that they thought his ins with the jury made him a bigger target than Tommy so he might need to win a competition to ensure his safety.

Tommy:

The case for: Tommy has played a phenomenal well-balanced game. From finding the idol on night one, to even surviving the first vote, it’s kind of crazy Tommy stayed off radars for as long as he did considering he is a survivor superfan. The big move is the pump fake move at tribal with the immunity idol. It’s still the best move we have seen this season and coupled with what was just pure raw social dominance in episodes 1-2, Tommy has played a very strong game. Also, winning competitions was not in his gameplan from the start. By playing such a good social game, not winning challenges was imperative to Tommy’s game to not make the target on his back insurmountable. Weirdly enough, losing was winning for Tommy, as long as he had faith in his social game. If he can find a way to keep himself safe at final four, it might be his best move yet though as everyone is well aware he has played an excellent game.

The case against: The easy case against Tommy is that he won’t make it to the final three. If he doesn’t get immunity it will be very very hard to flip the vote considering he’s going against two girls who are in an alliance and the guy who they just voted with to do a blindside. That’s not even considering they are all going to treat him like a huge threat in this round, knowing he’s watched countless jury speeches and been practicing interview question responses ever since he was the kid from The Middle (I know I already made this joke but goddamn it it's uncanny). A bitter jury could hurt Tommy too especially against a nice player like Nick as could a jury that highly valued competition play or loyalty throughout the game, which would help Keegs or Brianna respectively.

Now, knowing the case for and against each player, there’s obviously a path to victory for everyone. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I am 99% certain Brianna is going to the final three. She has an alliance with Kelly and I think if Kelly doesn’t get immunity she’s a bigger target than Brianna, and if Kelly does win another challenge, it would be in the best interest of Nick and Tommy both to go after each other and keep Brianna out of the jury as shed be a free vote to Kelly. I think Kelly has a decent shot as well now at final four. I called her getting out last blog but now she’s got easier challenge competition, and if she loses the challenge she’s already at a 2-2 split at worst scenario if the guys vote together, and I don’t think it would be hard to convince Nick or Tommy that they don’t want to be sitting next to each other at final three. Keeping her in also like Brianna keeps a free jury vote off the table. Nick’s path to the final three is one of two ways, he could make another move with the girls and take out Tommy or he could vote with Tommy and hope the girls see Tommy as a bigger threat than him and make it a 2-2 split between a girl and Tommy. I think it is highly unlikely Nick and Tommy vote on the same side in final four but barring a shocking backstab from the girls, Nick is Tommy’s best shot at getting the 2 votes needed to at least force whatever the Surviving Barstool equivalent of a fire-making contest is. Speaking of Tommy, he really needs immunity. Obviously, he can get to the final three without it, and if he does it might be the cherry on top of his already very impressive resumé, but that would likely include getting both the girls to think Nick is the bigger target and vote him 3-1. He also could try to pull Nick and Bri if Kelly doesn’t get immunity, but again I can’t imagine Bri would change her style of play so drastically (I mean if she did the jury could see it as a big social move, but also probably would see it as backstabbing the girl who brought you to the new Amsterdam lounge all week). 

To simplify:

If Kelly wins immunity: Nick or Tommy would be the guess. Bri could be gone in this scenario too but I think she is sitting pretty

If Bri wins immunity: Nick or Tommy or 2-2 split between Kelly and one of the guys

If Tommy wins immunity: Nick or 2-2 split between Kelly and Nick 

If Nick wins immunity: Tommy or 2-2 split between Tommy and Kelly. Outside shot of Kelly 3-1 but I don’t think Bri does that move

All right that broke my brain breaking down all these possible scenarios. Stay tuned for after the finale my finale breakdown, my dreamcast of season 2, and other non surviving barstool related blogs I got in the works!!